Tusk: “provocation” on Kaliningrad border averted, police launch special operation

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said security forces had averted a possible “provocation” on the border with Russia’s Kaliningrad region. According to France 24, border guards responded after people with flashlights were spotted during the night, and police launched a “special operation” to tighten security on the borders with Belarus and Russia.

Tusk, according to Reuters, accused Moscow of trying to stoke instability in Poland and linked this to the protests in Warsaw. The protests stem from a dispute over the selection of Constitutional Tribunal judges: Tusk’s government suspended the tribunal’s president, a move opposed by President Karol Nawrocki.

A pattern on the eastern flank

The incident fits a series of warnings from NATO’s eastern flank. As early as September, according to TVP World, Tusk said a “direct threat” to a border crossing had been averted and that Warsaw must be ready for Russian provocations. According to Radio Free Europe, the Wall Street Journal reported in August, citing US intelligence, that Russia could test NATO with a limited incursion as soon as this autumn.

The Kaliningrad region, a Russian exclave between Poland and Lithuania, is one of the most militarised areas in Europe. We published a broader analysis of hybrid pressure on the Baltic region in The Baltic “NATO lake” and the escalation trap.

Polish authorities have not released the identities of the individuals or details of the alleged provocation.