El Niño strengthens towards historic levels: NOAA gives 83 percent odds of a strong or very strong event
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on October 8 that El Niño continues to strengthen, with a greater than 83 percent chance of a strong to very strong event through January–March 2027.
The Niño-3.4 index, the standard measure of tropical Pacific temperatures, reached +2.1°C above normal. When NOAA declared El Niño on June 11, it stood at +0.7°C. Parts of the eastern Pacific are more than four degrees above normal.
A "historic" El Niño
NOAA does not use the term "super El Niño" but "historic event", when its three-month index reaches +2.5°C or more, stronger than anything since 1950. The odds are put at 83 percent for October–December and 70 percent for November–January.
"El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely," NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said.
Sources and references
- I.NOAA CPCENSO diagnostic discussion, October 2026🔗 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
- II.NOAA CPCENSO diagnostic discussion, June 2026🔗 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jun2026/ensodisc.shtml
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